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A New Paradigm for Engaging
Somalia
(Columbus, Ohio,
December 31, 2009 Ceegaag Online)
The
stakes are much higher than ever before. And, despite the
negative reports that dominate the news and thus perpetuate
the sense of hopelessness, voices of reason are becoming
more audible against the current senseless violence, chaos
and extremism. More and more Somalis are coming to realize
that the path ahead leads no where except the assured
suicide of a nation.
In
various circles—especially within the Somali Diaspora—there
are lively discussions on the seemingly forgotten values of
compromise, coexistence, collective security and
common-good. And the consensus seems to gravitate toward two
particular priorities.
First,
in supporting the unity government despite its relative
challenges, deficiencies and dysfunctions, so long as it
puts reconciliation on top of its agenda and works toward
the eradication of the clan-based appointment system known
as “4.5” (four point half).
Second,
advocating for the international community’s direct
involvement in solving the Somali political problem. Yes,
that same political entity that has no transparent vision,
mission or any form of accountability as it has no physical
office or address, no overtly known leader or board of
trustees, no telephone number or e-mail address. And yes,
that same political powerhouse that prematurely used the
military option against the Islamic Courts Union and
supported Ethiopia in its brutal occupation of Somalia, and
abandoned Somalia for two decades to descend into the lowest
of the low. After all it is the only thing that makes
pragmatic sense.
On their
part, as was reiterated in the 16th meeting of the ICG
(International Contact Group) recently held in Jeddah, Saudi
Arabia, the international community is committed to take a
more active role in the Somali issue.
The
December 3rd atrocious bombing that killed 22 people
including cabinet ministers, graduated medical students,
faculty and parents during a graduation ceremony is now
recognized as the tipping point of two decades of violence
in Somalia. Since that horrific event, there has been
anxious maneuvering on the part of the international
community to accelerate its involvement and take direct
sustainable actions that help stabilize the situation.
Though
the international community’s interest in Somalia is broad,
here is some of the oft-cited strategic rationale:
- To prevent potential spread of transnational
terrorism
- To prevent radicalization of Somali Diaspora
youth
- To find a home for the floating command center
known as AFRICOM (Africa Command Center)
- To control the Indian Ocean and thus control the
life-line of China’s energy security as its oil imports from
various African nations travel through that route
- To protect one of the world’s most critical
commercial arteries from piracy
- To monitor and stabilize the threat coming from
a volatile geographical area that the Pentagon refers as The
Arc of Instability [Somalia, Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia,
Yemen, and Kenya. 2/3 of the world’s refugee population come
from three of these countries]
- To provide access to the identified but
unexplored natural resources
The UN
economic sanctions imposed on Eritrea for its role in
funding the militant Al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam against the
unity government is seen as the first step toward the
reinvigorated commitment. Meanwhile, within the
international community, more specifically the US policy
which functions as its moral compass, the remanence of the
previous administration is relentlessly pushing the military
option—including the use of private security contractors—as
they claim that al-Qaida has already set up an active
terrorist franchise in Somalia, though there is hardly
convincing evidence to confirm that.
As was
learned from the Iraq war, if you draw the devil in the
walls long enough, the devil will eventually appear in
person. Claim that Al-Qaida has found a base in Somalia long
enough and that will surely become the case in due course;
and that could ignite new problems and disasters in Somalia.
If there
is any wisdom to be gained out of this young 21st century it
has to do with the costly lesson that “hard power” (mainly
military, technological, and economic) alone cannot sustain
peace or political influence. Any effort intended for
effective political problem-solving and conflict-resolution
must be made of a mix that includes “soft power” (public
diplomacy, humanitarian and development aid, strategic
educational campaigns, political and/or economic pressure).
China uses this latter approach to expand its political
influence around the world.
If
military power alone could stabilize Somalia or in any way
solve its political problem, it would’ve happened when
thousands of US Marines were stationed in Somalia between
1992 and 1994; or when the late General Mohamed Farrah Aidid
assembled the largest ever clan-coalition between 1995 and
19996; or when Ethiopia unleashed its brutal 2 year
occupation between 2007 and 2009.
So, any
effective engagement on the part of the international
community would require an approach that is radically
different from the one applied in the last two decades; and
this, needless to say, would require new thinking. The all
too familiar kneejerk reactions when it comes to dealing
with “Islamists” have proven counterproductive. Relying
solely on violence would only make matters worse, especially
for the estimated 3.5 million people on the verge of
starvation.
And,
since all other things have failed, it behooves the
international community to try soft power while expanding
the African Union mandated AMISOM into a UN operation.
Adding forces from Muslim countries such as Turkey, Egypt,
Saudi Arabia, Indonesia, and Pakistan and keeping the
frontline states such as Ethiopia and Kenya out.
Soft
power is by no means cheap; however, it is much cheaper than
wars and their destruction of lives and properties.
Therefore, the international community should flood Somalia
with food and medicine- an amount that far exceeds what
would eventually be stolen and end up in the wrong hands.
The supply should be so abundant that the biggest problem
becomes keeping pace with storage and distribution of these
essential human needs. Despite the seeming humanitarian
extravagance, this approach which I referred to as Operation
3.5 in another article is likely to be much cheaper than the
military option.
Second,
to invest in a national disarmament project in which people
are offered to sell their weapons for highly competitive
prices and all disarmed individuals are offered training
programs such as micro-enterprise (small businesses to
sustain themselves) and perhaps offered small grants after
completing such programs.
Third,
start a strategic reconstruction project- a massive
construction project to build a safe haven for essential
institutions and to provide jobs to many who currently have
to do the unthinkable to feed themselves and their families.
Fourth,
to empower civil societies already engaged in promoting
inter-Somali dialogue and are sporadically building bridges
of understanding, collaboration and forgiveness. With the
right training and funding, some of these organizations
could play pivotal role in paving the way for a viable
organic reconciliation process woven with the necessary
religious and cultural values.
Fifth,
offer confidence-building amnesty to key individual players
who are on the US terrorist list as these lists further
radicalize people.
There is
an across generational rising political consciousness, or
movement, if you will, that is gaining traction. Its motto
is “enough is enough”. This rapidly growing segment of the
population who espouse that view is ready to welcome any new
idea or initiative that is different than the rackets of the
past two decades. They hinge their hope on President Sharif
Sheikh Ahmed whose vision, charisma and moral balance
radiate promising optimism.
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Abukar Arman is a
writer who lives in Ohio. His articles and policy analysis
are widely published.
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